R&D relief has spent five years being sold badly. Cold callers told cafés their loyalty cards qualified, claim factories took a quarter of the money for a template narrative, and HMRC responded exactly as you would expect. It now runs a compliance operation of over 500 people, up from around 100 in 2020-21, and in 2023-24 it opened checks on 17% of claims — of which 77% ended in an adjustment (HMRC, approach to R&D tax reliefs 2023 to 2024).
The market reacted by retreating. Claims fell 26% to 46,950 in 2023-24, and first-time claimants dropped 45% — the fourth consecutive annual fall (HMRC R&D tax credits statistics, September 2025). Some of that is abuse leaving the system. A good deal of it is founders with genuinely qualifying work deciding the whole thing looks too much like trouble.
Both reactions are wrong, and they have the same cause: the work was being priced as a commission on a windfall rather than as a piece of professional judgement. So we price it as a piece of professional judgement.








